Monday 23 February 2009

Oscar night - last chance.

Ok, the celebs are arriving on the red carpet as I am typing, so this is your last chance to read up and impress your friends with your knowledge of the Oscar ballot and your ability to pick a winner.

If you are out of the Oscar loop this year, don't worry. You don't have to see the nominated movies and performances to pick the Academy Award winners. You just have to know something about the past and have a sense of the present media buzz.

If you have seen many of the nominated pictures, remember to set aside your own preferences. Instead, imagine yourself as a Hollywood actor. They make up the largest voting segment of the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences.

Actors like movies that employ a lot of actors. They are suckers for comeback performances and revere indelible characterizations. They appreciate the difficulty of making a critically acclaimed movie on a small budget as well as the hardship of making a blockbuster with a cast of thousands.

So, before tonight's Oscar party, check out the official oscar ballot and squint like Clint Eastwood as you check out our prediction tips.

Best Actor
The nominees: Richard Jenkins ("The Visitor"), Frank Langella ("Frost/Nixon"), Sean Penn ("Milk"), Brad Pitt ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button") and Mickey Rourke ("The Wrestler").

Tip: Vegas odds are on Mickey Rourke.

Richard Jenkins' moving portrayal of a lonely widower was overshadowed by the performances of leading men in movies released later in the year. Sean Penn won the Screen Actors Guild award, which makes him the favorite to take home the Academy Award. On the other hand, Vegas oddsmakers are picking Rourke. Penn's portrayal of a gay politician earned him a batch of trophies, but Rourke's fellow actors will identify with his up-and-down career and reward him for his emotional comeback performance as hard-luck wrestler Randy "the Ram."

Best Actress
The nominees: Anne Hathaway ("Rachel Getting Married"), Angelina Jolie ("The Changeling"), Melissa Leo ("Frozen River"), Meryl Streep ("Doubt"), Kate Winslet ("The Reader").

Tips: Traditionally, the winner of this award has no previous wins in this category. Films related to the Holocaust often collect Oscars.

Despite the fact that Streep already has two Oscars (one for leading actress and one for supporting), she's still a top contender because she won a SAG award for her portrayal of a protective, suspicious nun in "Doubt." Streep has a record 15 Oscar nominations but will not win her third Oscar this year.

Jolie, Hathaway, Leo and Winslet have never won an Oscar for best actress. The winner will be Winslet, who has six career Academy Award nominations. Streep won an Oscar for the Holocaust-related movie "Sophie's Choice"; Winslet will win her first Oscar for playing Hannah Schmidt, a former German guard at a Nazi prison camp.

Best Supporting Actor
The nominees: Josh Brolin ("Milk"), Robert Downey Jr. ("Tropic Thunder"), Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Doubt"), Heath Ledger ("The Dark Knight"), Michael Shannon "Revolutionary Road").

Tip: This category will defy trends because of Ledger's unforgettable, last performance as the Joker in 2008's blockbuster hit.

Normally, the youngest actor doesn't win this category. But Heath Ledger, who died of an accidental overdose at age 28 in January 2008, is the odds-on favorite for a posthumous Academy Award.

Best Supporting Actress
The nominees: Amy Adams ("Doubt"), Penelope Cruz ("Vicky Christina Barcelona"), Viola Davis ("Doubt"), Taraji P. Henson ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"), Marisa Tomei ("The Wrestler").

Tip: First-time nominees in this category usually win.

That means Adams, who played a young nun, and Tomei, who played a stripper, are not likely to win. Adams was previously nominated for a supporting part in "Junebug," and Tomei was nominated twice in this category, winning for a role in "My Cousin Vinny."

Cruz was hilariously tempestuous in Woody Allen's movie. Although she was nominated in the Best Actress category previously, she's a newcomer in this category. She has momentum and luck on her side. Mark your ballot for Cruz.

Best Picture
The nominees: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," "Frost/Nixon," "Milk," "The Reader," "Slumdog Millionaire."

Tip: If the movie has swept previous awards, look for it to take home the top Academy Award.

"Slumdog Millionaire" won the Golden Globe, an ensemble award from the Screen Actors Guild and the best picture award from the Producers Guild of America, which knows something about making a movie. Unless the movie's buzz has peaked and is on the downslide, it should be a shoo-in as Best Picture.

Best Director
The nominees: Danny Boyle ("Slumdog Millionaire"), Stephen Daldry ("The Reader"), David Fincher ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"), Ron Howard ("Frost/Nixon"), Gus Van Sant ("Milk").

Tip: Most of the time, the director of the movie that wins the Best Picture Academy Award also wins the directing prize.

The winner of the Directors Guild Award also is a good indicator. With that in mind, look for British filmmaker Danny Boyle to make an Oscar speech.

Best Animated Feature
The nominees: "Bolt," "Kung-Fu Panda" and "WALL-E."

Tip: Big box-office and major buzz herald the winner.

If Hollywood doesn't give the animated feature Oscar to "WALL-E," which many contend deserved a spot on the Best Picture ballot, fans should storm the red carpet.

Best Visual Effects
The nominees: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," "The Dark Knight," "Iron Man."

Tip: I doubt if you need one, but here it is: The splashiest, most technically awesome work in a box-office hit is usually recognized.

There was no movie bigger last year than "The Dark Knight," and it got snubbed for Best Picture.

Best Cinematography
The nominees: "The Changeling," "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," "The Dark Knight," "The Reader," "Slumdog Millionaire."

Tip: Choose the cinematographer who won the American Society of Cinematographers' prize.

Mark your ballot for Anthony Dod Mantle of "Slumdog Millionaire." Besides the ASC prize, he won the best cinematography award from the British Academy of Film and Television.

Best Costume Design
The nominees: "Australia," "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," "The Duchess," "Milk," "Revolutionary Road."

Tip: One word — corsets.

Period movies usually win this category. Since all five films take place in the past, choose the one with elaborate wigs, fancy hats and bulging bosoms.

"The Duchess."

Best Makeup
The nominees: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," "The Dark Knight," "Hellboy II: The Golden Army."

Tip: Pick the movie that will get shut out of other prizes, including Best Picture.

The voters will throw "Benjamin Button" a bone for the makeup artistry involved in making a baby look freakishly old and Brad Pitt look homely.

Best Song and Best Score
Tip: Both music Oscars will go to the Best Picture winner.

"Slumdog Millionaire."

Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay
Tip: The Writers Guild Award winners will also win the Oscars.

The WGA recently handed its original screenplay prize to Dustin Lance Black for "Milk" and gave the adapted screenplay award to Simon Beaufoy for "Slumdog Millionaire."

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